All-In #287: most of the figures hold up. Nvidia's valuation and a vaccine price don't.
We checked 13 claims from the August 29 episode against Treasury, BLS and BEA data and company filings. Eight hold up, three need context and two don't. Nvidia traded at about 18 times expected earnings, not 12. And Moderna has not set a price for its cancer vaccine; $500,000 is close to one analyst's estimate.
Published by Arun Agrahri, Founder, TrueStandardPublished October 8, 2026Aired August 29, 202613 claims · 29 sourcesWatch the episodeHow we check
Now reading:The episode, in order
The episode, in order
Claims appear in the order they aired.
0:00
Intro
No checkable claims from this segment.
3:31
Robot Olympics, Optimus and Grok Bot
No checkable claims from this segment.
9:05
Nvidia and Salesforce earnings
9:261
Finding 1 of 3 ·
9:26–30:36 ·
Jason Calacanis
Nvidia's results match its filing. It trades at about 18 times expected earnings, not 12
Between 9:26 and 30:36, Jason Calacanis and David Sacks made four claims about Nvidia's quarter. Revenue, growth and guidance match the company's filing. The $60 billion profit is real, but $7.8 billion of it came from investment gains. Without one-offs, Nvidia earned $54.0 billion, which still tops every other company's quarter we found. The Hugging Face deal is reported, not confirmed, and Poolside is a license, not a purchase. The valuation is the claim that fails: before the jump, the stock traded at about 26.5 times past earnings and 18.4 times expected earnings.
Each claim has two parts: the figure, and what it was said to show. Three of the four figures match Nvidia's filing or the reports behind them. The valuation figure does not.
The figure✓$96.2B, +106%✓$12.9B and $6B✓$59.7B net✗26.5x past, 18.4x forward
What it was said to show✓"guided for 70% growth"matches the filing and the call~"he bought Hugging Face"reported only; Poolside is a license~"most profit ever"$54.0B without one-offs, still the top✗"12 times earnings"no common measure gives 12
Nvidia made $96.2 billion against $92 billion expected, and guided to 70% growth against 45%
“96.2 billion in revenue in the quarter. Chamath, up 106% year-over-year, more than double. Wall Street's expectation was 92 billion. They guided for 70% growth next year. That is well above what Wall Street was expecting at 45%.”
What the record shows
Nvidia reported $96.2 billion for the quarter ended July 26, 2026, up 106% from a year earlier. Analysts expected about $92.2 billion. On the call, CFO Colette Kress pointed to about 70% revenue growth for fiscal 2028, against a consensus of about 44% to 45%.
Nvidia "bought" Hugging Face for $12 billion and Poolside for $6 billion, under 1% of its market value
“He bought Hugging Face for 12 billion. And he did like one of these acqui-hire deals with Poolside for 6 billion total, about 20 billion in acquisitions, which is far less than 1% of the market cap of Nvidia.”
What the record shows
The Information reported on Aug 26 that Nvidia agreed to buy Hugging Face for $12.9 billion; neither company confirmed it. The Poolside deal is a $6 billion non-exclusive license plus a $1 billion stake, with more than 100 engineers moving to Nvidia; it is not an acquisition. About $19 billion is well under 1% of Nvidia's value of roughly $5.4 trillion in mid-August.
Nvidia's $60 billion quarter was "the most profit ever generated by a company", excluding one-offs
“Almost 100 billion in revenue just for the quarter. $60 billion of profit. 75% gross margins. I mean, excluding one-off items, this was the most profit ever generated by a company in history.”
What the record shows
GAAP net income was $59.7 billion on $96.2 billion of revenue, with a 75.0% gross margin. But $7.8 billion of that came from gains on equity securities, a one-off. Without one-offs, Nvidia's non-GAAP net income was $54.0 billion. That still tops every other quarter we found once one-offs are removed. Alphabet's larger quarters came mostly from investment gains: its $112.2 billion in Q2 2026 included $77.1 billion from a $99.0 billion equity gain. Aramco's record was $48.4 billion.
“After these numbers, even despite the 8% bump, Nvidia is only trading at 12 times earnings.”
What the record shows
Before the jump, Nvidia traded at about 26.5 times its trailing earnings of $7.91 a share and about 18.4 times expected earnings (Aug 26 close, $209.66). An 8% rise lifts both. A month later it was about 17 times next-12-month earnings, the lowest since January 2015. No common measure we found gives 12; the closest, about 14 times, uses fiscal 2028 forecasts. Sacks's wider point, that the stock is cheap by its own history, holds.
The 30-year Treasury hit a 19-year high of 5.3%, and Bessent doubled buybacks from $2 billion to $4 billion
“Last week, 30-year Treasury hit a 19-year high, 5.3%. ... In response, Bessent doubled the Treasury Department's elongated bond buybacks from 2 billion to 4 billion on August 19th.”
What the record shows
The 30-year par yield closed at 5.31% on Aug 17, 2026, its highest close since June 2007 (5.35%), and touched 5.34% intraday on Aug 18. On Wednesday, Aug 19, Treasury doubled buybacks in the 10-to-30-year sectors from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation, from Sept 9 to Nov 4.
The average rate on $40 trillion of debt is 3.4%, and each point costs 1.25% of GDP a year
“Well today the federal government's average cost of debt is 3.4%. That's what we're paying on interest on average on the $40 trillion of debt that the federal government has outstanding. For every 1% change in the interest rate, the US government has to pay 1.25% of GDP in excess interest each year.”
What the record shows
Treasury's average rate on interest-bearing debt was 3.447% at July 31 (3.49% at Aug 31), and total debt passed $40.0 trillion in August. One point on $40.1 trillion is about $401 billion, 1.23% of Q2 2026 GDP of $32.56 trillion. Two limits: about $7.8 trillion of that debt is owed to government trust funds, so on debt held by the public the cost is about 1.0% of GDP. And the full cost arrives only once all the debt has rolled over at the new rate.
The government has to refinance $10 trillion of debt in the next 12 months
“So the federal government has a problem because over the next 12 months they have to refinance $10 trillion of debt.”
What the record shows
Treasury's debt statement for July 31, 2026 lists $10.48 trillion of marketable debt due within a year. That is a third of the $31.45 trillion outstanding. About $7.0 trillion of it is short-term bills that roll over routinely.
Debt is growing at 7% while GDP grows between 2% and 4%
“So you have the debt growing at 7% and you have GDP between, you know, 2 and 4%. So that's a recipe for disaster.”
What the record shows
Total federal debt grew 7.5% in the year to Aug 27, 2026 ($37.28T to $40.08T); debt held by the public grew 8.1%. Real GDP grew 2.2% from Q2 2025 to Q2 2026, inside his range. But debt is counted in today's dollars, so the like-for-like figure is nominal GDP, which grew 6.3%. Debt is still growing faster, by about 1 to 2 points, not 3 to 5.
AI check, no web:Claude Opus:matched our checkGemini Flash:matched our check
50:092
Finding 2 of 3 ·
50:09 ·
David Friedberg
2019 spending leaves a surplus only in 2019 dollars
David Friedberg said that at 2019 spending levels the government "would be making a profit". In the dollars of each year, he is right. Outlays were $4.45 trillion in fiscal 2019, and receipts were $5.23 trillion in fiscal 2025. But prices rose about 26% between the two years. In 2025 dollars, 2019 spending comes to $5.59 trillion. That would still leave a deficit of about $0.36 trillion.
2019 dollars
2019 spending $4.45T
Surplus $0.79T
2025 dollars
2025 receipts $5.23T
Deficit $0.36T
Source: Treasury, Monthly Treasury Statement, and BLS CPI-U. Fiscal 2019 outlays were $4.45 trillion and fiscal 2025 receipts $5.23 trillion, a $0.79 trillion surplus. Adjusted for prices, 2019 outlays are $5.59 trillion, a $0.36 trillion deficit.
At 2019 spending levels, the government would run a surplus today
“You know, if we went back to 2019, we would actually have a budget surplus right now as a country. Our economy has grown so much since 2019 that if we had the same spending levels as we had in 2019, our federal government would be making a profit paying down the debt.”
What the record shows
In dollars of the day, yes: fiscal 2019 outlays were $4.45 trillion, and fiscal 2025 receipts were $5.23 trillion, a $0.79 trillion surplus. But prices rose about 26% between the two years. The same 2019 spending in 2025 dollars is $5.59 trillion, which would still leave a deficit of about $0.36 trillion.
AI check, no web:Claude Opus:matched our checkGemini Flash:matched our check
53:133
Finding 3 of 3 ·
53:13 ·
David Friedberg
Tuition rose 8% a year for 30 years, from 1978 to 2008. Since 1996 the rate is 4.3%
David Friedberg said tuition rose "8% a year, compounding for 30 years" once the government backed student loans. The BLS tuition index did rise 7.9% a year from 1978 to 2008. The rate has fallen in every 30-year window since. From 1996 to 2026 it was 4.3% a year, and over the last ten years 2.0%, below overall inflation. The index tracks list prices, not what students pay after aid.
College tuition, average yearly rise over the 30 years ending each August
Source: BLS, CPI-U college tuition and fees (CUUR0000SEEB01) and all items (CUUR0000SA0), August values. The band spans overall inflation over the same windows, 2.3% to 4.1% a year.
Tuition rose "8% a year, compounding for 30 years"
“When the government intervenes in underwriting student loans and gives everyone a loan, administrative costs went up by 6x and tuition skyrocketed 8% a year, compounding for 30 years because the government said we'll underwrite any student loan.”
What the record shows
The BLS college tuition index did rise 7.9% a year for 30 years, from August 1978 to August 2008. Over the latest 30 years (1996 to 2026) it rose 4.3% a year, and over the last 10 years 2.0% a year, slower than overall prices. The 8% figure describes a period that ended in 2008. We found no source for administrative costs rising sixfold. The closest figure counts staff, not costs: administrative staff grew 164%, about 2.6 times, from 1976 to 2018.
Ratcliffe's Moscow trip was the first by a CIA director since Burns in November 2021
“John Ratcliffe made a surprise visit on Tuesday and flew back the same day. First visit by sitting CIA director since November 2021. That was when Bill Burns went to warn Putin not to invade Ukraine. He invaded three months later.”
What the record shows
Ratcliffe landed in Moscow on Tuesday, Aug 25, 2026, and his plane left the same evening. It was the first known visit by a CIA director since Burns, whom President Biden sent in early November 2021 to warn the Kremlin about its troop buildup near Ukraine. Russia invaded on Feb 24, 2022, 114 days later: closer to four months than three.
Russia has "four or five times the population of Ukraine"
“Keep in mind, Russia has four or five times the population of Ukraine. So they're able to sustain much greater armies.”
What the record shows
The World Bank puts Russia at 143.5 million and Ukraine at 39.0 million in 2025, a ratio of 3.7. Ukrainian demographers estimated 34 to 35 million people in government-held territory in 2024, which gives about 4.1 to 4.2. 'Four or five times' fits the government-held count and runs high against the total.
Moderna is "saying that they're going to charge $500,000" for its cancer vaccine
“So why is Moderna saying that they're going to charge $500,000 for this?”
What the record shows
Moderna has not said it will charge $500,000. After the Phase 3 melanoma result on Aug 19, CEO Stéphane Bancel said the price had not been decided, and we found no later price from Moderna or Merck. The figure is close to an analyst's assumption: William Blair modeled a list price of $475,000, in line with approved cell therapies for cancer.
AI check, no web:Claude Opus:couldn't checkGemini Flash:matched our check
Chamath Palihapitiya made one claim we could check. Two of the three findings are David Friedberg's, because his figures carry most of the debt argument.
How we check
We take the claims that carry the argument and check each one against primary sources: the agency release, the filing, the original article. We link every source with its date. The speaker carries the burden of proof, so a claim with no evidence either way is rated Unsupported, not false. We check in both directions, and we say so when a speaker understated their own case.
The rating scale
Accurate
The claim is right as stated.
Mostly accurate
Right in substance, though a detail is off or out of date.
Missing context
The figure is right, but the frame around it leaves a false impression.
Misleading
Built from real data, but arranged to mean something the data does not show.
Inaccurate
Wrong: the record shows a different figure or fact.
Unsupported
We found no evidence for it, and none against it.
The headline counts group the six ratings into three. Hold up covers Accurate and Mostly accurate. Need context covers Missing context and Misleading. Don't hold up covers Inaccurate and Unsupported.
How this page was made
Every claim is checked against primary sources, and every verdict gets an independent second review before we publish. We use AI to research and draft, and no verdict rests on a model's memory: each one cites a source you can open. When a claim is about an AI company, a model made by that company does not get the final say.
What the AI check shows
On October 7, 2026, we gave every claim to Claude Opus and Gemini Flash cold, with no web access, the way a reader might paste it into a chatbot. We scored each answer against our check and show the result at the foot of each claim card. It shows what a chatbot alone would have told you and plays no part in our verdicts.
Claude Opus: 7 matched, 6 couldn't check, 0 confidently wrong.
On September 30, 2026, after the episode, BEA revised second-quarter growth from 1.5% to 2.2% and first-quarter growth from 2.1% to 2.5%. Our GDP figures use the revised data.
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